BEST LEAGUES & TEAMS FOR OVER 4.5 GOALS
Using statistics from the 2019/20 season across multiple European leagues, we can identify teams and leagues that give you the best chance of landing Over 4.5 goal bets. Remember, the statistics used in the example below come from last season. The stats displayed in the table above are the current campaign numbers. Together they cover short term and long term trends, use these patterns to make smarter bets.
BEST LEAGUES FOR OVER 4.5
If we take a high-level view of the top European Leagues, we see the Dutch Eredivisie is the best league for games ending over 4.5 goals. In 2019/20 the Eredivisie average was 20.3%.
The worst major football league for Over 4.5 goals in 2019/20 was La Liga (Spain) at 10.3%. Closely followed by the English Premier League at 11.6%.
The second best place for finding goals was the Bundesliga. Matches in the German league ended in Over 4.5 goals at the rate of 19.9%, slightly below the Dutch average but higher than the French Ligue One rate (11.1%).
Punters should also look closely at Serie A. Italian football has a reputation for tight, low scoring games. Yet, in reality, the league has a higher Over 4.5 goal rate (14.7%) than the Premier League and Ligue One.
BEST TEAMS FOR OVER 4.5 GOALS
Now we’ve looked at the various leagues; it’s time to look at the individual teams. We’ll start with clubs in the leagues which had the best overall stats for Over 4.5 goals.
In 2019/20 season, the following Dutch teams had the highest percentage of matches ending Over 4.5. The club with the best record was Ajax Amsterdam (36%), behind them was Fortuna Sittard (35%) and Feyenoord (28%). Fortuna Sittard enjoyed a slightly higher rate (38%) at home. Ajax stats also improved to 38% when playing at home.
AZ Alkmaar (8%) and FC Groninger (0%) had the lowest chances of being involved in games Over 4.5 goals during the 2019/20 season.
Dortmund (26%) and Bayern Munich (32%) both had an excellent record in 2019/20 for games which ended Over 4.5 goals. RB Leipzig away from home were also a decent option at 35%. FC Augsburg on the road (29%) could be worth a look too.
Teams to avoid included: Union Berlin (12%), Hertha Berlin (15%) and Freiburg (6%). At home, Freiburg recorded a 0% of games Over 4.5.
BEST OF THE REST
In this section, we’ll look at the teams who buck trends for their leagues. First up is Barcelona, although La Liga has one of the lowest rates of Over 4.5 goals, Barcelona still manages to rack up the goals. In 2019/20 they had a 26% overall rate, nevertheless, away from the Camp Nou, that figure jumped to 37%.
In the French first division, PSG were the kings of the big scoreline. 36% of all their games went Over 4.5 goals. Monaco matched that number, but only when they played at home.
In the Premier League, it was Manchester City who had the best record. 26% of their matches ended in Over 4.5 goals. The only club to better improve on those stats was West Ham at home (26%).
I’ve saved the best till last, Italian side Atalanta smashed it out of the park in 2019/20 with an incredible 37% of their games ended over 4.5! If you look at the current stats, you’ll see that Atalanta is doing well again this season.