The two matches below form a ‘double’ bet for today’s over 3.5 goal prediction.
This £10 ‘Over 3.5 Goals’ Double could pay out…
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If you don’t understand the basic concepts of under/over goal betting, check out our quick guide (click here) before continuing. If you familiar with this bet type, read on.
In the 2019/20 Premier League, Manchester City (53%), Chelsea (37%), Liverpool (34%) and Southampton (29%) recorded the highest percentage of games where the scoreline finished above 3.5 goals.
A typical £10 bet on an English Premier League match to finish over 3.5 goals is likely to be quoted at odds of around 6/4. In other words, it gives a decent return.
However, if these returns don’t satisfy, then the ‘over 4.5 goals’ or ‘over 5.5. goals‘ markets could be for you. Although it’s worth pointing out that the number of games that finish over 4.5 is relatively small. As a result, it’s riskier than betting on over 3.5 goals. But less risky than the over 5.5 goals market.
As I mentioned earlier some teams will statistically be more likely to be involved in high scoring matches than others. In the 2019/20 La Liga season, Barcelona led the Spanish league with the highest percentages of games (47%) finishing over 3.5 goals.
In the Bundesliga, Bayern Munich offered punters one of the strongest chances of landing the over 3.5 goal wager. In the 2019/20 season, 62% of their games finished over 3.5 goals!
Each week we will feature our top tips for the games that we think will produce 3.5 goals or more. The selections will form a betting ‘double’ but feel free to back the selections individually or use our table to find teams who are regularly involved in big scoring games.
HOW TO USE THE STATS TABLE:
The table includes match data for 2020/21 season from the top European leagues: Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga 1&2 and French Liga 1.
If you want to bet in the OVER 3.5 goals market look for teams with higher percentage numbers ( 20% – 100% ).
If you’re backing UNDER 3.5 goals then look for teams with lower percentage numbers ( 0% – 10% ).
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ADDITIONAL USER INFORMATION:
1. You can find a specific team quickly by typing the club name into the search box at the top righthand side of the table.
2. You can filter teams by League and Percentage % (click the table header marked LEAGUE or %).
3. Use the ‘Show’ and ‘Next’ tab to view more teams.
4. The first number in the column marked PD (example:10/12) is the total number of games ending over 3.5 goals and the second number is total games played.
Look at the statistics for games ending Over 3.5 by league, we can spot some interesting patterns. We’ll be using the stats for 2019/20 season in this section. However, the stats on this page (above table) show the information for the current season.
The Premier League is not the goal-fest many football fans believe. Compared to other European top-flight leagues, the Premier League lags behind when it comes to high scoring games. In 2019/20 just 28.2% of matches ended Over 3.5 goals.
The 28.2% figure is the league average. However, some clubs are involved in high scoring matches more often. The team with the highest percentage of games over 3.5 in the 2019/20 season was Man City at 53%. West Ham (39%) and Chelsea (37%) were two other teams who recorder decent stats.
Splitting the stats between ‘home and away’ performances shows West Ham over 3.5 goals rate was 47%. Liverpool matched that figure at when playing at Anfield. Nevertheless, the Premier League is not the best league for finding games with lots of goals.
If you’re serious about finding games with Over 3.5 goals, the Bundesliga is the place to look. The league average in Germany was 41.5%. A massive stat compared to the Premier League (28.2%) and La Liga (22.1%).
Interestingly, the statistics show that no Bundesliga team had a lower percentage than (29%). That’s higher than the Premier League average!
If we look at the stats on a team by team basis, we can see that Bayern Munich (62%), Dortmund (59%) and Leipzig (50%) topped the table in the most games ending Over 3.5 goals. Dortmund at home is an excellent option, as they achieved a 65% Over 3.5 goals rate at the Westfalenstadion.
Although it has a reputation for low scoring football games, Serie A is one of the better leagues for betting on Over 3.5 goals. The combine Over 3.5 goals rate of 33.9% is above the Premier League (28.2%) and La Liga (22.1%).
Teams in Serie A who should be favoured include Atalanta (53%), Genoa (42%) and Sassuolo (42%). At home, Atalanta were able to improve their stats to 63%.
Away from home, Torino, Parma and Roma hit the 47% ratio of games ending in Over 3.5. The worst team in the league for producing Overs was Hella Verona, just 18% of their matches resulted in Over 3.5 goals.
On a final note, I wanted to give readers the heads up on the Austrian Bundesliga. It’s a fantastic league for Over 3.5 goals fans. The Austrian top flight averages 44.3% of games over 3.5. However, a couple of clubs do significantly better than the league average.
Salzburg (69%), Hartberg (56%) and Rapid Wien (50%) are three teams worth following. Especially Salzburg at home, who recorded a massive 81% of their matches ending Over 3.5 goals.
Most bookmakers will lay bets on the Over 3.5 goals prediction market. You’re unlikely to find major differences in the odds quoted by the bigger bookies. However, it’s still worth shopping around for the best prices.
I use Paddy Power, Betfred and Boylesports for the majority of my football bets. Their odds are usually competitive and these bookies offer various ongoing benefits for customers. You can also claim a generous PROMO offer when joining them online – details of the Boylesports offer can be found below.
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Ref2022-02-09 11:27:542022-02-09 11:27:54Atalanta vs Juventus – Match Prediction, Odds & Free Tips | 2022New clients may receive a variety of promotional perks when creating an account with a bookmaker’s website. Free bets, better odds, and match specials are all available for this game. We’ve compiled a list of the current deals from major online bookies below. To learn more about the promotion offer, click on the links below.
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