BEST LEAGUES FOR OVER 3.5 GOALS
Look at the statistics for games ending Over 3.5 by league, we can spot some interesting patterns. We’ll be using the stats for 2019/20 season in this section. However, the stats on this page (above table) show the information for the current season.
The Premier League is not the goal-fest many football fans believe. Compared to other European top-flight leagues, the Premier League lags behind when it comes to high scoring games. In 2019/20 just 28.2% of matches ended Over 3.5 goals.
The 28.2% figure is the league average. However, some clubs are involved in high scoring matches more often. The team with the highest percentage of games over 3.5 in the 2019/20 season was Man City at 53%. West Ham (39%) and Chelsea (37%) were two other teams who recorder decent stats.
Splitting the stats between ‘home and away’ performances shows West Ham over 3.5 goals rate was 47%. Liverpool matched that figure at when playing at Anfield. Nevertheless, the Premier League is not the best league for finding games with lots of goals.
If you’re serious about finding games with Over 3.5 goals, the Bundesliga is the place to look. The league average in Germany was 41.5%. A massive stat compared to the Premier League (28.2%) and La Liga (22.1%).
Interestingly, the statistics show that no Bundesliga team had a lower percentage than (29%). That’s higher than the Premier League average!
If we look at the stats on a team by team basis, we can see that Bayern Munich (62%), Dortmund (59%) and Leipzig (50%) topped the table in the most games ending Over 3.5 goals. Dortmund at home is an excellent option, as they achieved a 65% Over 3.5 goals rate at the Westfalenstadion.
Although it has a reputation for low scoring football games, Serie A is one of the better leagues for betting on Over 3.5 goals. The combine Over 3.5 goals rate of 33.9% is above the Premier League (28.2%) and La Liga (22.1%).
Teams in Serie A who should be favoured include Atalanta (53%), Genoa (42%) and Sassuolo (42%). At home, Atalanta were able to improve their stats to 63%.
Away from home, Torino, Parma and Roma hit the 47% ratio of games ending in Over 3.5. The worst team in the league for producing Overs was Hella Verona, just 18% of their matches resulted in Over 3.5 goals.
On a final note, I wanted to give readers the heads up on the Austrian Bundesliga. It’s a fantastic league for Over 3.5 goals fans. The Austrian top flight averages 44.3% of games over 3.5. However, a couple of clubs do significantly better than the league average.
Salzburg (69%), Hartberg (56%) and Rapid Wien (50%) are three teams worth following. Especially Salzburg at home, who recorded a massive 81% of their matches ending Over 3.5 goals.