Football betting is one of the biggest industries around the world. In fact sports betting is so huge that in Italy, it was worth $2.2 billion in 2021.

And that was only the FOURTH biggest market in the world. So, of course, that means millions of people betting on their favourite teams and players, day in and day out.

But rather than simply going with your gut, it’s essential to use some good football betting strategies. The problem is that finding them can be tricky.

Plus, and I know this won’t be easy to read, they can be VERY complicated.

When people throw around terms like the Martingale System or the Kelly Criterion, they are talking about very complex mathematical equations.

I explain them further in this article, so that you can get an idea of what is involved. But I would urge you to practice them before ever spending a penny of your own money.

Understand the Basics

Before diving into complex strategies, let’s go back to basics. The first thing you need to do is grasp the fundamentals of football betting.

Know the different types of bets, such as match result, over/under, and both teams to score. Understand how odds work and what they represent.

Familiarise yourself with the teams, not just your favourite, and study their recent form and head-to-head records.

A basic understanding creates a strong foundation and sets the stage for successful betting.

Manage Your Money

I cannot stress enough that effective bankroll management is crucial in betting. Set aside a specific amount for betting and stick to it.

If you lose, you lose so avoid the temptation to chase losses with bigger bets. Similarly, don’t get carried away with wins.

The best approach is to keep your bet sizes consistent and to bet a small percentage of your bankroll on each wager.

So if you have £20 or £200, decide how much of that money you are willing to bet on each bet and stick to it.

This strategy means that win or lose, you still have cash left to make another bet and it reduces the risk of significant losses.

 

Do Your Research

Try to use as much information as possible to decide on your bet. Information is key to having good football betting strategies.

Start by gathering information on the teams. Look at their recent performances, player availability, and historical data. How do they perform at home versus away?

Consider the match context; is it a local derby? Is one team fighting relegation while the other chases a title?

Pay attention to team news. Injuries and suspensions can change a team’s prospects. Always use reputable sources for your research. Websites like Transfermarkt and Sky Sports offer reliable football tips and insights.

Football Betting Systems

Now that you’ve done the basics, decided on how much you have to spend, and researched the teams thoroughly, it’s time to use that info and apply it to the various betting strategies and systems.

There are a few different football betting systems, each with its pros and cons.

The Martingale system involves doubling your bet after a loss in pursuit of a win. While it can lead to short-term success, it’s risky in the long run.

The Fibonacci system, based on a mathematical sequence, is another popular method. It’s less aggressive than Martingale but still carries risk.

The Kelly Criterion is a more sophisticated system. It calculates the optimal bet size based on your bankroll, the odds offered, and your probability of winning.

This system promotes responsible gambling and maximises potential profits.

What Is The Kelly Criterion?

Let’s look at the Kelly Criterion first, as it’s the most suited to football betting.

It is a mathematical formula used to determine the best size of a series of bets.

In the context of football betting – or betting on sports in general — the Kelly Criterion can help you decide how much to spend on a particular bet.

The Numbers You Need

To use the Kelly Criterion, you need to have an estimate of the probability of winning the bet (p). This estimate should be in decimal form (e.g., 50% would be 0.5).

You also need to know the odds you’re getting on the bet (b). Convert these odds to decimal form if they’re not already (e.g., 3/1 becomes 4.0 in decimal odds).

With these two pieces of information, you can use the formula to calculate f, the fraction of your bankroll that you should bet.

A Real World Example

Rather than confuse you writing out the formula and all of the fractions adn decimals, it’s a lot easier to watch this video right here:

Benefits
By betting a fraction of your bankroll based on the true odds and the odds being offered, you’re making bets that are sized proportionally to your edge.

This prevents you from risking too much on a single bet and helps to avoid the risk of significant losses.

Downsides
While the Kelly Criterion can be a powerful tool, it relies on accurate estimates of the probability of winning.

If your estimates are off, your bet sizing will be off as well, which can lead to poor results.

Some bettors choose to use a “Partial Kelly,” betting a fraction of the amount suggested by the Kelly Criterion to reduce risk further.

The Fibonacci System

This is a betting strategy based on the Fibonacci sequence, a series of numbers where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones.

The sequence goes 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, and so forth. In simple terms, this system involves adjusting your bet size based on whether you win or lose.

The basic idea is to move one step forward in the sequence every time you lose a bet and move two steps back every time you win a bet.

  • Start Betting: You start with a single unit bet. If your first bet is £10, that’s your one unit.
  • If You Lose: If the bet loses, you move to the next number in the sequence and bet that many units. So your next bet would be £10 again.
  • If You Lose Again: If you lose again, you move to the next number bet that many units, which would now be £20.
  • If You Win: If you win a bet, you move back two numbers in the sequence and bet that many units. So if you win your £20 bet, you would move back to £10 for your next bet.

The main goal of the Fibonacci system is to recoup losses when a win finally occurs. Increasing bet sizes means that a win will cover the previous losses and potentially lead to a profit.

Let’s go through a practical example to understand better:

The Sequence: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34

Bet £10 and lose (sequence is 1).
Bet £10 again and lose (sequence is 1, 1).
Bet £20 and lose (sequence is 1, 1, 2).
Bet £30 (1+2) and win (sequence is 1, 1, 2, 3).
At this point, you’ve lost £40 (£10 + £10 + £20) but won £30, so you’re still down £10. The system suggests moving back two steps in the sequence for the next bet, which would be £10.

While the Fibonacci system can help recoup losses, it’s not without risks. The bet sizes can increase rapidly after a few losses, leading to significant financial risk.

It requires a considerable bankroll to sustain long losing streaks.

It’s also worth noting that this system does not change the odds of the game or increase your chances of winning in the long term.

The Martingale System

The main idea behind the Martingale system is to double your bet after every loss.

The theory is that when you eventually win, you’ll recoup all previous losses and gain a profit equal to your original bet.

  • Decide on a starting bet amount. This could be any amount, but for this example, let’s say it’s £10.
  • If your bet wins, you keep the winnings and start again with your original bet amount.
  • If your bet loses, you double your next bet. So, if you started with £10 and lost, your next bet should be £20.
  • And if you lose the £20 bet, you would double up again and bet £40.

The idea is that when you eventually win a bet, you’ll cover all previous losses and make a profit equal to your initial bet (£10 in this example).

An Example

Bet £10 and lose (total loss: £10).
Bet £20 and lose (total loss: £30).
Bet £40 and win (total win: £40).
At this point, you’ve recovered the £30 you lost in the first two bets, and you have a £10 profit.

You need a substantial bankroll to sustain a long losing streak. If you start with a £10 bet and lose 7 bets in a row, your eighth bet would need to be £1,280.

Most sportsbooks and casinos have betting limits, so you might reach the maximum bet allowed before you can recoup your losses.

And, like all good football betting strategies, there’s no guarantee of winning.

 

Top Tip For A Betting Strategy

If you do plan to use any of the above betting systems, then practise a lot first. Just use them at home, pretending that you’ve put a bet on them. See if it would have won or lost based on the strategy you used.

The more you practise, the easier it will become, at which point you can try it out with your hard-earned cash.

And if all of that fails, then think about signing up for a really good tipping service such as Tipstrr or Betting Gods, both of which offer free daily tips from Pro tipsters who have a proven and verified track record.

At the end of the day, football betting offers exciting opportunities for those equipped with the right strategies.

Understand the basics and manage your bankroll effectively. Engage in thorough research and analysis. Look for value bets and employ different betting systems.

Use all available tools and resources and with these strategies, you’re well on your way to a successful football betting journey. Enjoy the game, and bet responsibly.

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