Most of us like a flutter every now and then. But for some, trying to earn a steady income from football gambling is the way they have decided to go.
While this is not something we recommend, simply because it’s too difficult and unpredictable, if you have decided to bet more than the odd couple of quid on your favourite team, then adding an accumulator to your portfolio is a decent place to start.
So can Value Betting and Accas co-exist? It’s an interesting question. From a statistician’s viewpoint, there should be no difference in theory.
Let’s take it in turn to explore both before deciding if a dual approach is the way to go.
What Is Value Betting?
Imagine you and a friend are betting on the outcome of a coin toss.
Normally, with a fair coin, there’s a 50% chance it will land on heads and a 50% chance it will land on tails.
If both of you bet £10 on different outcomes, the fair return for the winner would be £20, right?
But now, let’s say your friend offers you £25 if it lands on heads, and you still only have to pay them £10 if it lands on tails.
Even though the chance of the coin landing on heads is still 50%, you stand to win more money than you should. This means betting on heads provides “value” for you.
This concept, when applied to sports betting or other gambling activities, is called “value betting“.
True Odds vs. Offered Odds
In any bet, there are “true odds”, which reflect the real probability of an outcome. Then there are the “offered odds”, which are what the bookmaker offers.
If the offered odds give a higher return than the true odds suggest, there’s value in that bet.
Value doesn’t mean you always win. It means that over time, if you consistently bet on outcomes where the odds are in your favour, you should end up with a profit.
As an example, suppose you think Team A has a 50% chance of winning against Team B.
If a bookmaker offers odds of 2.5 for Team A to win, there’s value in this bet. Even if Team A doesn’t win every time, betting on them consistently at these odds should yield profit in the long run.
However, it’s important to remember that even if a bet has value, it doesn’t guarantee a win.
It’s about making informed decisions that, over a large number of bets, should lead to profit.
Value Betting is like shopping for bargains. Just as you’d be happy buying a £100 item for £70, in betting, you’re looking for situations where you can stake less money for a bigger return than the actual probabilities suggest.
What Is A Football Accumulator?
A football accumulator goes like this…
Imagine you decide to buy three different lottery tickets. For each ticket, if you guess the right number, you win a prize.
Now, instead of treating each ticket separately, you decide that you’ll only claim a prize if ALL three of your tickets are winners.
The catch is, if they all win, you’ll get a much bigger prize than just adding up the three separate prizes.
This concept, when applied to football betting, is what’s known as a “Football Accumulator” or often just “Accumulator” or “Acca”.
Essentially, in an accumulator, you’re placing multiple bets (usually on different football matches) all on one betting slip.
The key is that for you to win your accumulator, ALL of your selections have to win. If even one bet loses, the whole accumulator loses.
Is It Worth It?
Because you’re relying on multiple outcomes all being correct, the odds get multiplied together.
This means you can potentially win much more money than placing these bets individually.
However, the risk is also higher because all your selections need to be correct.
As an example, let’s say you bet on Team A, Team B, and Team C to all win their respective matches in an accumulator.
For you to win the bet, Team A, Team B, AND Team C all have to win. If even one of them draws or loses, your entire accumulator bet loses.
That said, accumulators aren’t limited to win-draw-win bets. You can mix various types of bets, like “both teams to score”, “over/under goals”, and more.
But again, every selection on your accumulator has to be correct for you to win.
Can Value Betting And Accas Co-Exist?
Theoretically they can. If team X has an equal chance of beating team Y, and there’s nothing to choose between them, then backing any of the three possible outcomes at anything better than 2/1 is a logical wager as long as your analysis is correct.
So rolling a number of such bets up shouldn’t fundamentally alter that overall value.
Obviously, you’ll lose on far more occasions than you win, but when you do win, you’ll win larger amounts pro-rata.
Perhaps it’s easier to simplify things and to take the draw out of the equation.
So thinking about a cup final, for example, there will be one winner at the end of the day. And major trophy finals are good examples of football value betting.
To some extent, the form book is less relevant given the status of the occasion and the added pressure it brings. In other words, more games don’t go to form than in more normalised league competitions.
It’s all a question of patience and making the right value-based selections. For punters who wish to see a steadier return than a win out of the blue will give them, then the accas with fewer selections is the way to go.
What Are The Benefits Of Mixing Betting Strategies
If you’re going to combine Value Betting with an Accumulator, you need to find value in multiple matches and then combine those bets.
It’s like spotting several items on sale and then hoping that when you bundle them together, you get an even better deal.
If you manage to find multiple value bets and combine them into an accumulator, and all of them win, you’ll get a much bigger payout.
It’s like getting a huge discount on a combo deal where each item is already on sale.
To effectively combine Value Betting with Accumulators, you’ll need to do a lot of research to spot value in multiple matches.
So while Value Betting and Accumulators can co-exist, it’s a challenging strategy.
While the potential reward is high, the risk is also greater because all your choices need to be spot on.
With the right research and some luck, it can be a profitable approach, but it’s not for everyone.